Column: What happens when scarcity disappears?

Last time, I wrote a column about events. About the danger that everything starts to look the same as soon as a market grows. That got me thinking about something else. What actually happens when, at a certain point, padel no longer has too few courts, but actually enough?

Perhaps that moment is still far off. Perhaps it will come sooner than we think. But it is certainly a question that occupies my mind.

At the moment, there is still more demand than supply. You notice that practically everywhere. New venues often manage to fill their courts quite well. Tournaments are running smoothly. And when a new hall opens somewhere, curiosity is high.

At the same time, I also see why supply isn't simply exploding. Anyone wanting to open an indoor venue just has to find a suitable building. And anyone wanting to build outdoors often runs into noise regulations. At the moment, those are still significant brakes on growth.

But what if those brakes become less severe?

What if municipalities start looking at padel differently? What if noise problems become easier to solve? What if business parks more often become places where padel halls are allowed to be built?

Then a tipping point might just emerge.

A moment when players no longer choose from what is available, but from what they want most.

And that is precisely what I find interesting. Because which locations will survive then?

I play padel regularly myself and notice that, as a player, I am actually already thinking about this. When we reserve a court, we often have a preference for certain locations. Not because they are closer, but simply because the playing experience is more pleasant there.

The height of the hall is better. The lighting is better. The sound is more pleasant. There is more space around the court.

And if that location is full? Then we move to another hall.

We all do that.

At the moment, that is not yet a major problem for the less ideal locations. After all, the demand is high enough. People want to play and accept certain limitations.

But what happens when there is sufficient choice later on?

Then I think some entrepreneurs will realize that maximizing investment in the number of courts is different from investing in the quality of the playing experience.

A low hall remains a low hall.

A sloping roof remains a sloping roof.

Reverberant acoustics remain reverberant acoustics. And a location where players don't really feel at home remains a location where players don't really feel at home.

Maybe I'm too much of an entrepreneur for that, but I find it fascinating. I like to look at why companies make certain choices. What considerations lie behind them? Why is the choice made somewhere for more courts instead of more quality? Why is investment in the experience made somewhere, and not elsewhere?

Because ultimately, I believe this question isn't just about padel halls.

It's about the entire padel market.

It's about events. About trainers. About shops. About travel providers. Actually, about everyone active in this sport.

Are you building something that is successful simply because there is currently more demand than supply?

Or are you building something that people will consciously choose later, once that scarcity disappears?

Those are two completely different things.

Again, perhaps that tipping point won't come for another ten years. Maybe in five. Maybe sooner.

I have no idea.

But I do know that players are already differentiating between locations. After all, we do that ourselves, too. And that is why I think it is not a bad idea to start thinking about that as an entrepreneur today.